An active inference model of car following: Advantages and applications

Driver process models play a central role in the testing, verification, and development of automated and autonomous vehicle technologies. Prior models developed from control theory and physics-based rules are limited in automated vehicle applications due to their restricted behavioral repertoire. Data-driven machine learning models are more capable than rule-based models but are limited by the need for large training datasets and their lack of interpretability, i.e., an understandable link between input data and output behaviors. We propose a novel car following modeling approach using active inference, which has comparable behavioral flexibility to data-driven models while maintaining interpretability. We assessed the proposed model, the Active Inference Driving Agent (AIDA), through a benchmark analysis against the rule-based Intelligent Driver Model, and two neural network Behavior Cloning models. The models were trained and tested on a real-world driving dataset using a consistent process. The testing results showed that the AIDA predicted driving controls significantly better than the rule-based Intelligent Driver Model and had similar accuracy to the data-driven neural network models in three out of four evaluations. Subsequent interpretability analyses illustrated that the AIDA's learned distributions were consistent with driver behavior theory and that visualizations of the distributions could be used to directly comprehend the model's decision making process and correct model errors attributable to limited training data. The results indicate that the AIDA is a promising alternative to black-box data-driven models and suggest a need for further research focused on modeling driving style and model training with more diverse datasets

Maternal polymorphisms in glutathione-related genes are associated with maternal mercury concentrations and early child neurodevelopment in a population with a fish-rich diet

Introduction: Glutathione (GSH) pathways play a key role the metabolism and elimination of the neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg). We hypothesized that maternal genetic variation linked to GSH pathways could influence MeHg concentrations in pregnant mothers and children and thereby also affect early life development. Methods: The GCLM (rs41303970, C/T), GCLC (rs761142, T/G) and GSTP1 (rs1695, A/G) polymorphisms were genotyped in 1449 mothers in a prospective study of the Seychellois population with a diet rich in fish. Genotypes were analyzed in association with maternal hair and blood Hg, fetal blood Hg (cord blood Hg), as well as children's mental (MDI) and motor development (PDI; MDI and PDI assessed by Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 20 months). We also examined whether genotypes modified the association between Hg exposure and developmental outcomes. Results: GCLC rs761142 TT homozygotes showed statistically higher mean maternal hair Hg (4.12 ppm) than G carriers (AG 3.73 and GG 3.52 ppm) (p = 0.037). For the combination of GCLC rs761142 and GCLM rs41303970, double homozygotes TT + CC showed higher hair Hg (4.40 ppm) than G + T carriers (3.44 ppm; p = 0.018). No associations were observed between GSTP1 rs1695 and maternal hair Hg or between any genotypes and maternal blood Hg or cord blood Hg. The maternal GSTP1 rs1695 rare allele (G) was associated with a lower MDI among children (β = −1.48, p = 0.048). We also observed some interactions: increasing Hg in maternal and cord blood was associated with lower PDI among GCLC rs761142 TT carriers; and increasing Hg in hair was associated with lower MDI among GSTP1 rs1695 GG carriers. Conclusions: Maternal genetic variation in genes involved in GSH synthesis is statistically associated with Hg concentrations in maternal hair, but not in maternal or fetal blood. We observed interactions that suggest maternal GSH genetics may modify associations between MeHg exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes

Genomic profiling of NETs : A comprehensive analysis of the RADIANT trials

Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) have historically been subcategorized according to histologic features and the site of anatomic origin. Here, we characterize the genomic alterations in patients enrolled in three phase 3 clinical trials of NET of different anatomic origins and assess the potential correlation with clinical outcomes. Whole-exome and targeted panel sequencing was used to characterize 225 NET samples collected in the RADIANT series of clinical trials. Genomic profiling of NET was analyzed along with nongenomic biomarker data on the tumor grade and circulating chromogranin A (CgA) and neuron-specific enolase (NSE) levels from these patients enrolled in clinical trials. Our results highlight recurrent large-scale chromosomal alterations as a common theme among NET. Although the specific pattern of chromosomal alterations differed between tumor subtypes, the evidence for generalized chromosomal instability (CIN) was observed across all primary sites of NET. In pancreatic NET, although the P value was not significant, higher CIN suggests a trend toward longer survival (HR, 0.55, P = 0.077), whereas in the gastrointestinal NET, lower CIN was associated with longer survival (HR, 0.44, P = 0.0006). Our multivariate analyses demonstrated that when combined with other clinical data among patients with progressive advanced NETs, chromosomal level alteration adds important prognostic information. Large-scale CIN is a common feature of NET, and specific patterns of chromosomal gain and loss appeared to have independent prognostic value in NET subtypes. However, whether CIN in general has clinical significance in NET requires validation in larger patient cohort and warrants further mechanistic studies

Final Design and On-Sky Testing of the iLocater SX Acquisition Camera: Broadband Single-Mode Fiber Coupling

Enabling efficient injection of light into single-mode fibers (SMFs) is a key requirement in realizing diffraction-limited astronomical spectroscopy on ground-based telescopes. SMF-fed spectrographs, facilitated by the use of adaptive optics (AO), offer distinct advantages over comparable seeing-limited designs, including higher spectral resolution within a compact and stable instrument volume, and a telescope independent spectrograph design. iLocater is an extremely precise radial velocity (EPRV) spectrograph being built for the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT). We have designed and built the front-end fiber injection system, or acquisition camera, for the SX (left) primary mirror of the LBT. The instrument was installed in 2019 and underwent on-sky commissioning and performance assessment. In this paper, we present the instrument requirements, acquisition camera design, as well as results from first-light measurements. Broadband single-mode fiber coupling in excess of 35% (absolute) in the near-infrared (0.97-1.31{\mu}m) was achieved across a range of target magnitudes, spectral types, and observing conditions. Successful demonstration of on-sky performance represents both a major milestone in the development of iLocater and in making efficient ground-based SMF-fed astronomical instruments a reality.Comment: 18 pages, 17 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Genomic profiling of NETs: a comprehensive analysis of the RADIANT trials

Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) have historically been subcategorized according to histologic features and the site of anatomic origin. Here, we characterize the genomic alterations in patients enrolled in three phase 3 clinical trials of NET of different anatomic origins and assess the potential correlation with clinical outcomes. Whole-exome and targeted panel sequencing was used to characterize 225 NET samples collected in the RADIANT series of clinical trials. Genomic profiling of NET was analyzed along with nongenomic biomarker data on the tumor grade and circulating chromogranin A (CgA) and neuron-specific enolase (NSE) levels from these patients enrolled in clinical trials. Our results highlight recurrent large-scale chromosomal alterations as a common theme among NET. Although the specific pattern of chromosomal alterations differed between tumor subtypes, the evidence for generalized chromosomal instability (CIN) was observed across all primary sites of NET. In pancreatic NET, although the P value was not significant, higher CIN suggests a trend toward longer survival (HR, 0.55, P = 0.077), whereas in the gastrointestinal NET, lower CIN was associated with longer survival (HR, 0.44, P = 0.0006). Our multivariate analyses demonstrated that when combined with other clinical data among patients with progressive advanced NETs, chromosomal level alteration adds important prognostic information. Large-scale CIN is a common feature of NET, and specific patterns of chromosomal gain and loss appeared to have independent prognostic value in NET subtypes. However, whether CIN in general has clinical significance in NET requires validation in larger patient cohort and warrants further mechanistic studies

Modelling the impact of improving screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection on future hepatocellular carcinoma rates and liver-related mortality.

BACKGROUND: The societal, clinical and economic burden imposed by the complications of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection - including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) - is expected to increase over the coming decades. However, new therapies may improve sustained virological response (SVR) rates and shorten treatment duration. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of HCV-related disease in England if current management strategies remain the same and the impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available. METHODS: A previously published model was adapted for England using published literature and government reports, and validated through an iterative process of three meetings of HCV experts. The impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available was modelled and compared to the base-case scenario of continuing current management strategies. To assess the 'best case' clinical benefit of new therapies, the number of patients treated was increased by a total of 115% by 2018. RESULTS: In the base-case scenario, total viraemic (HCV RNA-positive) cases of HCV in England will decrease from 144,000 in 2013 to 76,300 in 2030. However, due to the slow progression of chronic HCV, the number of individuals with cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will continue to increase over this period. The model suggests that the 'best case' substantially reduces HCV-related hepatic disease and HCV-related liver mortality by 2020 compared to the base-case scenario. The number of HCV-related HCC cases would decrease 50% by 2020 and the number progressing from infection to decompensated cirrhosis would decline by 65%. Therefore, compared to projections of current practices, increasing treatment numbers by 115% by 2018 would reduce HCV-related mortality by 50% by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that with current treatment practices the number of patients developing HCV-related cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will increase substantially, with HCV-related liver deaths likely to double by 2030. However, increasing diagnosis and treatment rates could optimise the reduction in the burden of disease produced by the new therapies, potentially halving HCV-related liver mortality and HCV-related HCC by 2020

Polymorphisms in ATP-binding cassette transporters associated with maternal methylmercury disposition and infant neurodevelopment in mother-infant pairs in the Seychelles Child Development Study

AbstractBackgroundATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters have been associated with methylmercury (MeHg) toxicity in experimental animal models.AimsTo evaluate the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in maternal ABC transporter genes with 1) maternal hair MeHg concentrations during pregnancy and 2) child neurodevelopmental outcomes.Materials and methodsNutrition Cohort 2 (NC2) is an observational mother-child cohort recruited in the Republic of Seychelles from 2008–2011. Total mercury (Hg) was measured in maternal hair growing during pregnancy as a biomarker for prenatal MeHg exposure (N=1313) (mean 3.9ppm). Infants completed developmental assessments by Bayley Scales of Infant Development II (BSID-II) at 20months of age (N=1331). Genotyping for fifteen SNPs in ABCC1, ABCC2 and ABCB1 was performed for the mothers.ResultsSeven of fifteen ABC SNPs (ABCC1 rs11075290, rs212093, and rs215088; ABCC2 rs717620; ABCB1 rs10276499, rs1202169, and rs2032582) were associated with concentrations of maternal hair Hg (p<0.001 to 0.013). One SNP (ABCC1 rs11075290) was also significantly associated with neurodevelopment; children born to mothers with rs11075290 CC genotype (mean hair Hg 3.6ppm) scored on average 2 points lower on the Mental Development Index (MDI) and 3 points lower on the Psychomotor Development Index (PDI) than children born to mothers with TT genotype (mean hair Hg 4.7ppm) while children with the CT genotype (mean hair Hg 4.0ppm) had intermediate BSID scores.DiscussionGenetic variation in ABC transporter genes was associated with maternal hair Hg concentrations. The implications for MeHg dose in the developing child and neurodevelopmental outcomes need to be further investigated

The Florey Adelaide Male Ageing Study (FAMAS): Design, procedures & participants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Florey Adelaide Male Ageing Study (FAMAS) examines the reproductive, physical and psychological health, and health service utilisation of the ageing male in Australia. We describe the rationale for the study, the methods used participant response rates, representativeness and attrition to date.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>FAMAS is a longitudinal study involving approximately 1200 randomly selected men, aged 35–80 years and living in the north – west regions of Adelaide. Respondents were excluded at screening if they were considered incapable of participating because of immobility, language, or an inability to undertake the study procedures. Following a telephone call to randomly selected households, eligible participants were invited to attend a baseline clinic measuring a variety of biomedical and socio-demographic factors. Beginning in 2002, these clinics are scheduled to reoccur every five years. Follow-up questionnaires are completed annually. Participants are also invited to participate in sub-studies with selected collaborators.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of those eligible to participate, 45.1% ultimately attended a clinic. Non-responders were more likely to live alone, be current smokers, have a higheevalence of self-reported diabetes and stroke, and lower levels of hypercholesterolemia. Comparisons with the Census 2001 data showed that participants matched the population for most key demographics, although younger groups and never married men were under-represented and elderly participants were over-represented. To date, there has been an annual loss to follow-up of just over 1%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>FAMAS allows a detailed investigation into the effects of bio-psychosocial and behavioural factors on the health and ageing of a largely representative group of Australian men.</p

Abdominal adiposity and obstructive airway disease: testing insulin resistance and sleep disordered breathing mechanisms

Extent: 22p.Background: This study examined associations of abdominal adiposity with lung function, asthma symptoms and current doctor-diagnosed asthma and mediation by insulin resistance (IR) and sleep disordered breathing (SDB). Methods A random sample of 2500 households was drawn from the community of Whyalla, South Australia (The Whyalla Intergenerational Study of Health, WISH February 2008 - July 2009). Seven-hundred twenty-two randomly selected adults ([greater than or equal to]18 years) completed clinical protocols (32.2% response rate). Lung function was measured by spirometry. Post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC was used to measure airway obstruction and reversibility of FEV1 was calculated. Current asthma was defined by self-reported doctor-diagnosis and evidence of currently active asthma. Symptom scores for asthma (CASS) and SDB were calculated. Intra-abdominal fat (IAF) was estimated using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). IR was calculated from fasting glucose and insulin concentrations. Results The prevalence of current doctor-diagnosed asthma was 19.9% (95% CI 16.7 - 23.5%). The ratio of observed to expected cases given the age and sex distribution of the population was 2.4 (95%CI 2.1, 2.9). IAF was not associated with current doctor-diagnosed asthma, FEV1/FVC or FEV1 reversibility in men or women but was positively associated with CASS independent of IR and SDB in women. A 1% increase in IAF was associated with decreases of 12mL and 20mL in FEV1 and FVC respectively in men, and 4mL and 7mL respectively in women. SDB mediated 12% and 26% of these associations respectively in men but had minimal effects in women. Conclusions In this population with an excess of doctor-diagnosed asthma, IAF was not a major factor in airway obstruction or doctor-diagnosed asthma, although women with higher IAF perceived more severe asthma symptoms which did not correlate with lower FEV1. Higher IAF was significantly associated with lower FEV1 and FVC and in men SDB mechanisms may contribute up to one quarter of this association.Matthew T Haren, Gary Misan, Tracey-Jayne Paterson, Richard E Ruffin, Janet F Grant, Jonathan D Buckley, Peter RC Howe, Jonathan Newbury, Anne W Taylor and Robyn A McDermot

Nodal stage migration and prognosis in anal cancer: a systematic review, meta-regression, and simulation study

Background: In patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA), lymph node positivity (LNP) indicates poor prognosis for survival and is central to radiotherapy planning. Over the past three decades, LNP proportion has increased, mainly reflecting enhanced detection with newer imaging modalities; a process known as nodal stage migration. If accompanied by constant T stage distributions, prognosis for both lymph node-positive and lymph node-negative groups may improve without any increase in overall survival for individual patients; a paradox termed the Will Rogers phenomenon. Here, we aim to systematically evaluate the impact of nodal stage migration on survival in SCCA and address a novel hypothesis that this phenomenon results in reduced prognostic discrimination. Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-regression to quantify changes in LNP over time and the impact of this change on survival and prognostic discrimination. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify randomised trials and observational studies in patients with SCCA published between Jan 1, 1970, and Oct 11, 2016. Studies were eligible if patients received chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy as the main treatment, reported LNP proportions (all studies), and reported overall survival (not necessarily present in all studies). We excluded studies with fewer than 50 patients. We extracted study-level data with a standardised, piloted form. The primary outcome measure was 5-year overall survival. To investigate scenarios in which reduced prognostic discrimination might occur, we simulated varying true LNP proportions and true overall survival, and compared these with expected observed outcomes for varying levels of misclassification of true nodal state. Findings: We identified 62 studies reporting LNP proportions, which included 10 569 patients. From these, we included 45 studies (6302 patients) with whole cohort 5-year overall survival, 11 studies with 5-year survival stratified by nodal status, and 20 studies with hazard ratios in our analyses of temporal changes. In 62 studies, the LNP proportions increased from a mean estimate of 15·3% (95% CI 10·5–20·1) in 1980 to 37·1% (34·0–41·3) in 2012 (p&lt;0·0001). In 11 studies with prognostic data, increasing LNP was associated with improved overall survival in both lymph node-positive and lymph node-negative categories, whereas the proportions with combined tumour stage T3 and T4 remained constant. In 20 studies, across a range of LNP proportions from 15% to 40%, the hazard ratios for overall survival of lymph node-positive versus lymph node-negative patients decreased significantly from 2·5 (95% CI 1·8–3·3) at 15% LNP to 1·3 (1·2–1·9; p=0·014) at 40% LNP. The simulated scenarios reproduced this effect if the true LNP proportions were 20% or 25%, but not if the true LNP proportions were 30% or greater. Interpretation: We describe a consequence of staging misclassification in anal cancer that we have termed reduced prognostic discrimination. We used this new observation to infer that the LNP proportions of more than 30% seen in modern clinical series (11 out of 15 studies with a median year since 2007) are higher than the true LNP proportion. The introduction of new staging technologies in oncology might misclassify true disease stage, spuriously informing disease management and ultimately increasing the risk of overtreatment. Funding: Bowel Disease Research Foundation